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Red164
317374.8
839351.5
751530.1
Blue103
965310.3
11732.0
446749.7
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions182108050150200250300164103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+35Teleop
+69Endgame
+61Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave3
6Coral scored#3
28Coral points16
37Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +17
16Coral scored#11
57Coral points38
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
6Processor points12
16Net points12
22Algae points24
79Total teleop62
Reef
7L4#5
5L3#5
6L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#19
BargeRed +34
36Cage & park2
36Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +61
12Foul points20
164Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
74.81.0
73.172.1
Auto17.4
Teleop45.8
End11.5
red by 25.1
49.71.9
50.348.4
Auto12.0
Teleop32.6
End5.1
Second
51.51.0
51.450.4
Auto11.3
Teleop32.0
End8.3
red by 19.5
117
#16
32.01.9
37.335.3
Auto6.0
Teleop24.2
End1.8
Third
7515
#15
30.11.0
31.330.3
Auto5.3
Teleop19.6
End5.2
red by 19.8
9653
#18
10.31.9
12.911.0
Auto2.6
Teleop6.4
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
45%Coral oddsEarned24%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned70%Barge oddsMissed