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Red49
551115.4
875812.7
874616.2
Blue41
744314.2
809013.1
690810.7
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions46470204060801004941

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+26Teleop
+22Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
9Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +17
7Coral scored#3
25Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
35Total teleop18
Reef
3L4#1
2L3#1
2L2#0
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#5
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points14
49Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8746
#10
16.20.3
15.215.5
Auto2.3
Teleop13.2
End0.8
red by 2.0
7443
#27
14.21.8
15.513.8
Auto3.4
Teleop8.9
End1.9
Second
5511
#15
15.40.3
10.510.9
Auto2.9
Teleop11.8
End0.7
red by 2.3
8090
#12
13.11.1
11.310.1
Auto3.1
Teleop8.0
End2.0
Third
8758
#14
12.70.3
10.911.3
Auto4.0
Teleop7.0
End1.7
red by 2.0
6908
#21
10.71.8
11.29.4
Auto1.8
Teleop7.2
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsEarned39%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
10%Barge oddsMissed11%Barge oddsEarned