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Red23
1026014.7
875812.7
809013.1
Blue19
551115.4
43510.2
55187.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions33320102040506070802319

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+2Teleop
+6Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +1
2Coral scored#3
8Coral points9
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
8Total teleop9
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
3Game pieces#4
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points2
23Total score19

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
14.70.4
8.17.8
Auto4.1
Teleop9.2
End1.4
blue by 0.7
5511
#15
15.41.8
13.111.3
Auto2.9
Teleop11.8
End0.7
Second
8090
#12
13.10.2
9.18.9
Auto3.1
Teleop8.0
End2.0
red by 2.9
435
#28
10.21.8
13.111.3
Auto2.8
Teleop5.8
End1.5
Third
8758
#14
12.70.4
9.08.6
Auto4.0
Teleop7.0
End1.7
red by 4.9
5518
#13
7.81.8
7.35.5
Auto2.2
Teleop3.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsMissed31%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsMissed