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Red33
874616.2
55187.8
48168.0
Blue22
43510.2
264220.8
62403.7
27%Model gave it73%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6281020401001201403322

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+9
Endgame+7
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave0
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedBlue +12
1Coral scored#4
5Coral points13
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
0Processor points0
0Net points4
0Algae points4
5Total teleop17
Reef
1L4#2
0L3#1
0L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
1Game pieces#6
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
18Foul points0
33Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8746
#10
16.24.5
19.114.6
Auto2.3
Teleop13.2
End0.8
blue by 4.6
2642
#23
20.85.3
38.533.2
Auto3.7
Teleop15.6
End1.5
Second
4816
#26
8.04.5
15.611.1
Auto3.0
Teleop3.9
End1.1
blue by 2.1
435
#28
10.25.3
17.612.3
Auto2.8
Teleop5.8
End1.5
Third
5518
#13
7.84.5
21.216.7
Auto2.2
Teleop3.9
End1.8
red by 4.2
6240
#31
3.75.3
13.48.2
Auto1.4
Teleop1.6
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
38%Auto oddsMissed47%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsMissed