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Red143
525336.7
327666.5
329347.2
Blue73
327522.8
419827.9
725735.7
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions137735010015020014373

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+68Teleop
+70Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave9
5Coral scored#0
23Coral points0
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +54
17Coral scored#10
62Coral points36
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
18Processor points6
24Net points8
42Algae points14
104Total teleop50
Reef
6L4#4
9L3#3
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#13
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
0Foul points0
143Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
66.53.1
48.751.8
Auto13.2
Teleop43.9
End9.4
red by 30.8
7257
#34
35.70.1
28.428.5
Auto6.9
Teleop22.7
End6.1
Second
47.21.9
38.039.9
Auto7.0
Teleop31.5
End8.7
red by 19.2
4198
#28
27.90.1
26.326.4
Auto5.0
Teleop16.4
End6.6
Third
5253
#14
36.71.9
28.330.2
Auto3.6
Teleop31.1
End2.0
red by 13.9
3275
#27
22.80.1
17.417.5
Auto3.9
Teleop16.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsEarned