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Red124
757831.5
87662.2
448014.1
Blue127
212954.8
327522.8
565822.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105834060120140160124127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+21
Endgame+7
Fouls+3
AutonomousBlue +11
9Leave3
2Coral scored#5
10Coral points27
19Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +10
16Coral scored#19
57Coral points69
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#2
12Processor points18
16Net points8
28Algae points26
85Total teleop95
Reef
5L4#8
6L3#8
3L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
24Game pieces#29
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
4Foul points0
124Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
876
#3
62.21.4
54.756.2
Auto14.6
Teleop39.8
End7.8
red by 7.5
2129
#13
54.84.4
37.942.4
Auto15.2
Teleop38.2
End1.4
Second
7578
#45
31.52.4
19.622.0
Auto6.5
Teleop22.4
End2.6
red by 8.7
3275
#27
22.84.4
17.522.0
Auto3.9
Teleop16.9
End2.1
Third
4480
#50
14.12.4
12.915.3
Auto3.2
Teleop9.5
End1.3
blue by 8.7
5658
#47
22.84.4
20.424.9
Auto4.5
Teleop15.7
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsEarned56%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
20%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsEarned30%Barge oddsMissed