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Red193
327666.5
753020.9
87662.2
Blue117
546432.0
329740.3
423034.9
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15510750200193117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+50Teleop
+64Endgame
+76Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave9
8Coral scored#4
40Coral points21
40Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +40
23Coral scored#16
83Coral points57
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
12Processor points6
20Net points12
32Algae points18
115Total teleop75
Reef
12L4#7
8L3#6
6L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
38Game pieces#24
BargeRed +14
26Cage & park12
26Total endgame12
Penalties & totalRed +76
12Foul points0
193Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
66.51.3
62.864.1
Auto13.2
Teleop43.9
End9.4
red by 26.2
40.30.3
40.340.6
Auto10.3
Teleop25.0
End5.1
Second
876
#3
62.20.9
59.760.6
Auto14.6
Teleop39.8
End7.8
red by 27.3
4230
#36
34.90.2
34.935.1
Auto6.4
Teleop26.7
End1.8
Third
7530
#29
20.91.2
17.518.7
Auto4.3
Teleop12.8
End3.8
blue by 11.1
5464
#17
32.00.3
31.932.2
Auto4.3
Teleop20.5
End7.1