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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15913580100120180200220129183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+2
Teleop+20
Endgame+22
Fouls+54
AutonomousBlue +2
0Leave3
7Coral scored#7
34Coral points33
34Total auto36
TeleoperatedBlue +18
14Coral scored#15
49Coral points55
1Processor algae#3
4Net algae#4
6Processor points18
16Net points16
22Algae points34
71Total teleop89
Reef
8L4#7
7L3#5
4L2#5
2L1 · trough#5
26Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +54
0Foul points32
129Total score183

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4909
#23
71.81.3
74.473.1
Auto21.1
Teleop40.5
End10.2
red by 11.9
2648
#12
59.80.9
45.846.7
Auto9.8
Teleop45.6
End4.4
Second
3182
#31
39.81.3
35.334.0
Auto5.8
Teleop26.5
End7.4
blue by 3.6
5422
#38
43.30.9
43.744.7
Auto9.8
Teleop28.5
End5.0
Third
8544
#43
21.71.3
29.428.1
Auto4.6
Teleop13.6
End3.5
blue by 20.5
155
#21
42.10.9
36.237.1
Auto9.1
Teleop27.5
End5.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
57%Coral oddsMissed19%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
85%Barge oddsEarned56%Barge oddsEarned