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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1291396080100120160180200118136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+20
Endgame+12
Fouls+18
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +23
20Coral scored#19
71Coral points68
2Processor algae#5
3Net algae#5
12Processor points30
12Net points20
24Algae points50
95Total teleop118
Reef
7L4#8
6L3#5
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
25Game pieces#29
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +18
0Foul points6
118Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
509
#40
46.30.2
39.239.0
Auto3.0
Teleop35.2
End8.1
blue by 16.0
8013
#14
62.30.3
51.752.1
Auto9.6
Teleop44.8
End7.8
Second
2064
#36
39.70.2
38.538.3
Auto7.6
Teleop23.4
End8.8
blue by 2.2
42.00.3
35.335.6
Auto6.7
Teleop29.6
End5.7
Third
8567
#22
38.30.2
32.031.8
Auto6.5
Teleop30.1
End1.7
red by 3.2
181
#39
35.10.3
26.626.9
Auto3.4
Teleop28.8
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsMissed89%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
50%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
85%Barge oddsEarned71%Barge oddsMissed