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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions165144100200250158147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+11Teleop
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave6
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points17
23Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +11
19Coral scored#14
67Coral points50
4Processor algae#5
7Net algae#7
24Processor points30
28Net points28
52Algae points58
119Total teleop108
Reef
8L4#7
8L3#3
3L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#29
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
158Total score147

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7127
#13
59.20.4
54.354.7
Auto9.3
Teleop47.1
End2.8
red by 0.5
230
#17
58.70.9
58.058.9
Auto17.1
Teleop33.2
End8.5
Second
2423
#27
47.70.4
50.851.2
Auto14.9
Teleop27.3
End5.4
red by 5.5
155
#21
42.10.9
37.638.5
Auto9.1
Teleop27.5
End5.4
Third
42.00.4
35.636.0
Auto6.7
Teleop29.6
End5.7
red by 6.9
181
#39
35.10.9
26.927.8
Auto3.4
Teleop28.8
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
64%Coral oddsEarned13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned47%Barge oddsEarned