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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions173132100150200250198120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+68Teleop
+78Endgame
+78Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave0
7Coral scored#2
34Coral points9
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +40
25Coral scored#18
89Coral points63
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#5
18Processor points12
28Net points20
46Algae points32
135Total teleop95
Reef
12L4#6
9L3#5
5L2#5
6L1 · trough#4
42Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +78
0Foul points0
198Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
190
#8
79.81.7
78.780.3
Auto21.8
Teleop49.0
End9.0
red by 22.3
166
#24
57.51.4
55.053.6
Auto8.6
Teleop38.9
End9.9
Second
7153
#33
56.01.7
47.248.9
Auto13.2
Teleop36.2
End6.6
red by 12.7
5422
#38
43.31.4
44.943.6
Auto9.8
Teleop28.5
End5.0
Third
999
#26
45.01.7
35.737.4
Auto9.9
Teleop32.0
End3.2
red by 22.2
6153
#47
22.81.4
29.528.1
Auto2.2
Teleop13.2
End7.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
70%Coral oddsEarned37%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
89%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsEarned