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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11713750100150200250121127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+2Teleop
Endgame+10
Fouls+6
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave9
7Coral scored#4
37Coral points21
40Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +8
16Coral scored#16
59Coral points57
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
6Processor points12
8Net points12
14Algae points24
73Total teleop81
Reef
7L4#8
5L3#5
5L2#4
6L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
4Foul points0
121Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
467
#30
58.90.2
52.352.6
Auto15.0
Teleop33.4
End10.5
blue by 3.9
1699
#11
62.90.3
58.958.6
Auto7.8
Teleop48.9
End6.2
Second
151
#46
33.10.2
35.836.0
Auto8.8
Teleop25.1
End-0.8
blue by 19.5
236
#32
52.60.3
44.344.0
Auto9.0
Teleop36.3
End7.3
Third
5735
#41
29.20.2
25.225.5
Auto6.5
Teleop20.9
End1.8
blue by 2.8
5112
#37
31.90.3
28.728.4
Auto4.6
Teleop25.8
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsMissed84%Barge oddsEarned