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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions164187100150200250207183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+2Teleop
+22Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave0
8Coral scored#7
38Coral points37
44Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +5
30Coral scored#27
109Coral points98
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#7
12Processor points12
12Net points28
24Algae points40
133Total teleop138
Reef
10L4#12
14L3#9
7L2#9
7L1 · trough#4
43Game pieces#43
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
4Foul points2
207Total score183

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
66.82.4
61.964.3
Auto16.8
Teleop45.1
End4.9
red by 4.0
1699
#11
62.90.2
62.462.3
Auto7.8
Teleop48.9
End6.2
Second
467
#30
58.92.4
56.058.3
Auto15.0
Teleop33.4
End10.5
red by 2.4
8046
#12
56.50.2
56.756.5
Auto11.5
Teleop36.7
End8.2
Third
5459
#31
40.92.4
38.640.9
Auto9.0
Teleop31.2
End0.7
blue by 12.1
6201
#43
53.00.2
53.253.0
Auto10.6
Teleop35.8
End6.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
48%Coral oddsEarned58%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsMissed