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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions201179120140160220240260280182118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+46Teleop
+64Endgame
+64Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
8Coral scored#5
40Coral points24
40Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +36
21Coral scored#16
76Coral points58
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#3
12Processor points6
24Net points12
36Algae points18
112Total teleop76
Reef
11L4#10
6L3#5
6L2#3
6L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#25
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +64
6Foul points6
182Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
195
#6
80.30.3
80.580.2
Auto20.1
Teleop50.3
End9.9
red by 2.4
7407
#25
77.93.8
79.275.4
Auto23.2
Teleop43.6
End11.1
Second
58
#14
63.90.3
63.663.3
Auto11.6
Teleop43.2
End9.1
red by 18.6
7869
#35
45.33.8
49.145.3
Auto5.2
Teleop38.3
End1.9
Third
8023
#33
32.60.3
32.832.6
Auto3.7
Teleop24.9
End4.0
blue by 1.4
6731
#48
34.03.8
37.834.0
Auto8.8
Teleop24.6
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
80%Coral oddsEarned29%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned87%Barge oddsMissed