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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions150168100200250147158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
Teleop+11
Endgame+13
Fouls+11
AutonomousRed +2
3Leave0
7Coral scored#7
33Coral points34
36Total auto34
TeleoperatedBlue +13
19Coral scored#20
69Coral points72
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
12Processor points18
12Net points16
24Algae points34
93Total teleop106
Reef
7L4#7
8L3#11
4L2#6
7L1 · trough#3
31Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +11
4Foul points2
147Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
172
#19
50.40.2
50.250.4
Auto13.3
Teleop29.6
End7.6
blue by 17.1
67.50.0
67.467.4
Auto22.0
Teleop38.1
End7.4
Second
173
#29
44.60.2
44.444.6
Auto9.3
Teleop33.6
End1.7
red by 0.9
8085
#21
43.70.0
43.643.6
Auto5.8
Teleop31.2
End6.7
Third
34.10.2
33.934.1
Auto8.0
Teleop18.5
End7.6
red by 1.0
151
#46
33.10.0
33.133.1
Auto8.8
Teleop25.1
End-0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
29%Coral oddsEarned57%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned63%Barge oddsEarned