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Red190
907270.0
222862.1
666536.1
Blue212
241261.3
180765.4
107263.6
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions187207100150250300350190212

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+22
Endgame+22
Fouls+22
AutonomousBlue +18
6Leave6
5Coral scored#9
27Coral points45
33Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +4
25Coral scored#26
89Coral points95
2Processor algae#5
10Net algae#5
12Processor points30
40Net points20
52Algae points50
141Total teleop145
Reef
10L4#14
6L3#10
8L2#6
6L1 · trough#5
42Game pieces#45
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +22
0Foul points0
190Total score212

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.01.1
63.564.6
Auto12.1
Teleop53.6
End4.3
red by 4.6
1807
#35
65.40.9
65.166.1
Auto15.5
Teleop45.3
End4.6
Second
2228
#40
62.11.1
61.462.5
Auto12.7
Teleop40.7
End8.7
blue by 1.5
1072
#34
63.60.9
62.263.1
Auto15.6
Teleop38.8
End9.2
Third
6665
#48
36.11.1
37.438.5
Auto5.7
Teleop23.6
End6.9
blue by 25.2
2412
#21
61.30.9
59.560.4
Auto14.3
Teleop38.5
End8.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
78%Coral oddsMissed54%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned69%Barge oddsEarned