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Red268
29467.3
44975.4
393774.7
Blue219
62467.4
907270.0
449979.8
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions227233200220240260280300268219

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+19Teleop
+39Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave6
12Coral scored#8
59Coral points42
62Total auto48
TeleoperatedRed +5
33Coral scored#33
120Coral points117
2Processor algae#3
7Net algae#5
12Processor points18
28Net points20
40Algae points38
160Total teleop155
Reef
15L4#18
14L3#8
9L2#9
7L1 · trough#6
54Game pieces#49
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +49
10Foul points0
268Total score219

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
449
#10
75.41.0
74.375.3
Auto13.2
Teleop52.8
End9.4
blue by 4.4
4499
#29
79.80.0
79.779.8
Auto20.6
Teleop48.0
End11.2
Second
74.71.0
73.674.6
Auto15.8
Teleop49.6
End9.3
red by 4.7
70.00.0
69.970.0
Auto12.1
Teleop53.6
End4.3
Third
294
#37
67.31.0
66.267.2
Auto14.0
Teleop48.6
End4.7
blue by 0.1
624
#36
67.40.0
67.367.4
Auto8.4
Teleop51.7
End7.3