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Red229
246861.0
241261.3
177892.9
Blue239
353878.3
138865.9
540679.4
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions230241150200250300229239

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+14
Endgame+34
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +21
6Leave3
6Coral scored#11
31Coral points55
37Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +7
36Coral scored#23
128Coral points81
3Processor algae#5
4Net algae#11
18Processor points30
16Net points44
34Algae points74
162Total teleop155
Reef
16L4#14
9L3#10
11L2#5
6L1 · trough#5
49Game pieces#50
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +10
24Foul points0
229Total score239

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1778
#12
92.90.2
93.192.9
Auto18.7
Teleop71.4
End2.8
red by 13.5
5406
#25
79.40.3
80.280.5
Auto19.3
Teleop49.1
End10.9
Second
2412
#21
61.30.2
61.561.3
Auto14.3
Teleop38.5
End8.5
blue by 17.0
78.30.3
79.279.4
Auto18.5
Teleop53.0
End6.8
Third
2468
#38
61.00.2
61.361.0
Auto8.0
Teleop44.7
End8.3
blue by 4.9
1388
#26
65.90.3
66.867.1
Auto12.8
Teleop44.8
End8.3