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Red233
19070.9
172139.8
568783.0
Blue199
581362.1
172939.3
192240.1
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions220151050100200250300350233199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+38Teleop
+40Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave9
10Coral scored#6
49Coral points28
55Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +20
27Coral scored#25
96Coral points90
5Processor algae#4
9Net algae#7
30Processor points24
36Net points28
66Algae points52
162Total teleop142
Reef
15L4#13
10L3#9
5L2#4
7L1 · trough#5
51Game pieces#42
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +34
0Foul points6
233Total score199

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
83.00.7
79.580.2
Auto23.6
Teleop52.8
End6.6
red by 20.8
5813
#22
62.10.9
59.660.5
Auto17.9
Teleop36.3
End7.9
Second
190
#3
70.90.7
67.468.1
Auto19.7
Teleop44.2
End7.0
red by 30.8
40.10.9
37.638.5
Auto9.4
Teleop27.4
End3.4
Third
1721
#11
39.80.7
36.337.0
Auto5.3
Teleop26.4
End8.2
red by 0.5
1729
#12
39.30.9
38.439.3
Auto7.4
Teleop27.8
End4.1