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Red178
632873.6
476121.5
346771.9
Blue183
13363.6
590222.1
287766.3
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions185162100150200250178183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+17Teleop
Endgame+3
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave9
8Coral scored#10
38Coral points49
44Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +31
21Coral scored#13
74Coral points47
4Processor algae#4
5Net algae#4
24Processor points24
20Net points16
44Algae points40
118Total teleop87
Reef
10L4#11
10L3#4
7L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +5
0Foul points2
178Total score183

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.60.3
73.373.6
Auto21.5
Teleop42.2
End10.0
red by 7.3
66.30.7
65.666.3
Auto19.8
Teleop38.0
End8.6
Second
71.90.3
71.671.9
Auto15.9
Teleop50.6
End5.4
red by 8.3
133
#3
63.60.7
62.963.6
Auto14.9
Teleop38.7
End10.0
Third
4761
#16
21.50.3
21.321.5
Auto3.2
Teleop18.6
End-0.3
blue by 0.6
5902
#20
22.10.7
21.422.1
Auto6.0
Teleop10.6
End5.5