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Red114
192230.5
13363.6
492516.9
Blue102
669023.5
632450.7
841035.7
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions104890200300400500114102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+10Teleop
+12Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
5Coral scored#3
27Coral points17
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +3
9Coral scored#12
34Coral points43
1Processor algae#1
7Net algae#4
6Processor points6
28Net points16
34Algae points22
68Total teleop65
Reef
6L4#8
4L3#3
3L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#20
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
0Foul points0
114Total score102

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
133
#3
63.61.0
52.153.1
Auto14.9
Teleop38.7
End10.0
red by 12.9
6324
#12
50.70.8
45.746.5
Auto13.9
Teleop34.8
End2.0
Second
1922
#22
30.51.0
25.126.1
Auto9.1
Teleop16.5
End4.9
blue by 5.2
8410
#21
35.70.8
24.625.4
Auto5.9
Teleop23.6
End6.3
Third
4925
#34
16.91.0
15.116.2
Auto3.9
Teleop11.8
End1.3
blue by 6.6
6690
#29
23.50.8
14.515.3
Auto4.1
Teleop17.6
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
76%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsEarned