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Red199
234256.0
172128.1
13854.6
Blue172
31939.1
636733.2
804648.7
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions149145100120160180200220199172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+15Teleop
+27Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave3
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points24
37Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +5
24Coral scored#23
88Coral points83
4Processor algae#4
6Net algae#6
24Processor points24
24Net points24
48Algae points48
136Total teleop131
Reef
13L4#13
8L3#6
4L2#5
5L1 · trough#4
40Game pieces#38
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +27
0Foul points0
199Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.01.2
51.452.6
Auto12.8
Teleop35.4
End7.7
red by 7.2
48.70.8
48.149.0
Auto9.3
Teleop32.7
End6.7
Second
138
#11
54.61.2
50.051.2
Auto11.8
Teleop34.2
End8.6
red by 15.5
319
#10
39.10.8
38.439.3
Auto6.0
Teleop26.0
End7.1
Third
1721
#19
28.11.2
23.524.8
Auto4.2
Teleop19.8
End4.2
blue by 5.1
6367
#15
33.20.8
32.633.4
Auto5.3
Teleop27.1
End0.8