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Red182
581369.6
19067.6
172935.3
Blue153
17240.0
13858.6
176881.8
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions201215100150250300350182153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
+21Teleop
+31Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
0Leave6
6Coral scored#9
30Coral points45
30Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +42
26Coral scored#13
94Coral points48
3Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
18Processor points18
12Net points16
30Algae points34
124Total teleop82
Reef
11L4#10
6L3#6
11L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
38Game pieces#29
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
2Foul points4
182Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.61.5
73.071.5
Auto15.3
Teleop45.2
End9.0
blue by 12.2
81.84.0
79.675.7
Auto23.6
Teleop47.1
End11.1
Second
190
#2
67.61.5
71.870.3
Auto18.1
Teleop42.4
End7.1
red by 9.0
138
#12
58.64.0
67.163.1
Auto13.1
Teleop37.5
End7.9
Third
35.31.5
46.144.6
Auto8.8
Teleop22.6
End3.9
blue by 4.7
172
#5
40.04.0
50.446.5
Auto9.6
Teleop24.1
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
97%Coral oddsEarned91%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned97%Barge oddsEarned