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Red34
9710.3
590214.7
172113.0
Blue45
50113.8
66209.6
127721.7
9%Model gave it91%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15530204060801003445

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+1
Endgame+5
Fouls+11
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +4
5Coral scored#5
19Coral points19
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
0Processor points0
4Net points8
4Algae points8
23Total teleop27
Reef
2L4#3
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +11
0Foul points6
34Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5902
#30
14.70.8
13.414.2
Auto4.7
Teleop7.6
End2.4
blue by 7.0
1277
#17
21.71.3
20.619.3
Auto2.3
Teleop14.6
End4.8
Second
1721
#19
13.00.8
4.85.7
Auto2.0
Teleop9.6
End1.4
blue by 0.8
501
#22
13.81.3
7.36.0
Auto4.1
Teleop8.3
End1.4
Third
97
#18
10.30.8
-0.60.3
Auto2.5
Teleop5.4
End2.4
red by 0.7
6620
#23
9.61.3
14.713.4
Auto4.3
Teleop3.9
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
8%Auto oddsMissed21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed