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Red78
999920.3
363736.3
181138.4
Blue48
167220.7
162614.9
87146.2
94%Model gave it6%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1264201001502007848

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+14Teleop
+24Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave6
3Coral scored#0
13Coral points0
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +4
9Coral scored#7
32Coral points24
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
6Processor points6
4Net points8
10Algae points14
42Total teleop38
Reef
5L4#2
3L3#2
3L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#10
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
6Foul points0
78Total score48

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.43.0
43.140.1
Auto7.1
Teleop28.1
End3.2
red by 17.7
1672
#31
20.70.6
24.323.7
Auto4.3
Teleop14.1
End2.3
Second
36.33.0
46.043.0
Auto7.6
Teleop21.1
End7.6
red by 21.3
1626
#17
14.90.6
14.013.4
Auto1.7
Teleop12.2
End0.9
Third
20.35.0
13.18.1
Auto2.1
Teleop10.9
End7.3
red by 14.1
8714
#16
6.20.6
6.35.7
Auto2.0
Teleop2.1
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned23%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
79%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed