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Red203
48455.8
31654.7
34180.7
Blue168
694104.7
511322.2
201628.5
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions210163050100250300350203168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+39Teleop
+29Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave9
10Coral scored#6
48Coral points28
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +25
21Coral scored#21
76Coral points75
5Processor algae#3
6Net algae#3
30Processor points18
24Net points12
54Algae points30
130Total teleop105
Reef
10L4#7
6L3#8
8L2#7
7L1 · trough#5
42Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
6Foul points0
203Total score168

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
341
#2
80.70.2
78.678.4
Auto12.9
Teleop58.1
End9.7
blue by 24.0
694
#1
104.70.1
104.1104.2
Auto26.9
Teleop63.9
End13.9
Second
484
#4
55.80.2
56.756.5
Auto17.2
Teleop32.9
End5.7
red by 27.3
2016
#24
28.50.1
28.428.5
Auto3.2
Teleop23.1
End2.3
Third
316
#13
54.70.2
53.553.3
Auto16.2
Teleop34.7
End3.8
red by 32.5
22.20.1
23.023.1
Auto4.2
Teleop12.5
End5.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
65%Coral oddsEarned78%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
89%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsEarned