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Red78
36558.7
45759.6
313643.4
Blue71
999022.0
777014.3
249528.7
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1586201002002507871

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+11Teleop
+1Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave6
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points9
26Total auto15
Teleoperatedlevel
7Coral scored#8
26Coral points30
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
40Total teleop40
Reef
3L4#4
4L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#12
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +7
6Foul points0
78Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
365
#5
58.73.9
63.259.4
Auto14.4
Teleop37.6
End6.6
red by 30.0
2495
#17
28.70.2
28.428.2
Auto6.5
Teleop21.0
End1.3
Second
3136
#19
43.43.9
47.443.5
Auto12.5
Teleop22.9
End8.1
red by 21.4
9990
#14
22.00.3
22.422.1
Auto3.7
Teleop11.9
End5.6
Third
4575
#27
9.63.9
13.59.6
Auto3.8
Teleop5.0
End0.8
blue by 4.7
7770
#22
14.30.2
14.514.3
Auto4.2
Teleop9.4
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
36%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
89%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsEarned