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Red141
48455.8
409924.0
36558.7
Blue74
31654.7
201628.5
741437.6
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16113505010020025014174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+55Teleop
+69Endgame
+67Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
9Leave6
4Coral scored#2
20Coral points10
29Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +42
15Coral scored#12
54Coral points44
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#1
18Processor points6
24Net points4
42Algae points10
96Total teleop54
Reef
8L4#4
6L3#3
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#16
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +67
0Foul points2
141Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
365
#5
58.70.0
59.459.4
Auto14.4
Teleop37.6
End6.6
red by 4.0
316
#13
54.71.1
54.753.6
Auto16.2
Teleop34.7
End3.8
Second
484
#4
55.80.0
56.556.5
Auto17.2
Teleop32.9
End5.7
red by 18.2
37.61.1
37.636.5
Auto6.9
Teleop27.4
End3.3
Third
4099
#28
24.00.0
24.724.7
Auto5.7
Teleop17.4
End1.0
blue by 4.5
2016
#24
28.51.1
28.527.4
Auto3.2
Teleop23.1
End2.3