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Red168
159933.2
901554.4
260768.5
Blue121
31654.7
201628.5
741437.6
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16413050100150200250168121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+41Auto
+57Teleop
+47Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +41
3Leave6
11Coral scored#2
55Coral points11
58Total auto17
TeleoperatedRed +16
21Coral scored#19
76Coral points68
1Processor algae#1
6Net algae#4
6Processor points6
24Net points16
30Algae points22
106Total teleop90
Reef
12L4#6
10L3#6
7L2#6
3L1 · trough#3
39Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +47
0Foul points0
168Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2607
#10
68.50.5
65.365.8
Auto18.0
Teleop42.1
End8.4
red by 13.8
316
#13
54.70.0
54.754.7
Auto16.2
Teleop34.7
End3.8
Second
54.40.5
51.251.7
Auto15.3
Teleop37.0
End2.1
red by 16.8
37.60.0
37.637.6
Auto6.9
Teleop27.4
End3.3
Third
1599
#18
33.20.5
30.030.5
Auto6.0
Teleop20.1
End7.1
red by 4.7
2016
#24
28.50.0
28.528.5
Auto3.2
Teleop23.1
End2.3