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Red105
314245.9
858818.3
686014.3
Blue11
862813.3
60169.4
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions60420208010012010511

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+56Teleop
+58Endgame
+94Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave3
3Coral scored#0
13Coral points0
13Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +46
11Coral scored#1
38Coral points4
0Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
0Processor points0
12Net points0
12Algae points0
50Total teleop4
Reef
4L4#1
5L3#0
2L2#0
3L1 · trough#0
17Game pieces#1
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +94
36Foul points0
105Total score11

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.91.4
31.532.9
Auto9.4
Teleop31.9
End4.6
red by 32.5
8628
#19
13.33.3
12.28.8
Auto2.6
Teleop9.3
End1.4
Second
8588
#25
18.31.4
12.914.3
Auto4.7
Teleop11.5
End2.1
red by 8.9
6016
#30
9.43.3
14.110.8
Auto0.9
Teleop6.5
End2.0
Third
6860
#17
14.31.4
8.810.2
Auto3.6
Teleop8.7
End2.0
red by 6.1
8.23.3
14.611.3
Auto1.6
Teleop4.1
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsMissed17%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed