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Red84
22328.2
69457.0
465325.9
Blue55
257715.1
4116.1
363732.6
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions53660204060801001201408455

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+19Teleop
+29Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave9
3Coral scored#0
16Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +12
9Coral scored#7
34Coral points24
0Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
0Processor points6
12Net points4
12Algae points10
46Total teleop34
Reef
4L4#3
4L3#2
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#9
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
6Foul points6
84Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
223
#11
28.22.5
26.829.3
Auto4.9
Teleop19.3
End4.0
blue by 4.4
3637
#12
32.61.1
29.027.9
Auto4.9
Teleop22.1
End5.6
Second
25.92.5
19.822.4
Auto7.7
Teleop13.7
End4.5
red by 9.8
41
#23
16.11.1
15.414.3
Auto4.1
Teleop9.7
End2.4
Third
6945
#22
7.02.5
5.17.7
Auto2.5
Teleop3.1
End1.5
blue by 8.1
2577
#24
15.11.1
16.315.2
Auto4.2
Teleop10.6
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
14%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsMissed