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Red16
807510.9
60169.4
22328.2
Blue9
69457.0
56247.9
334017.4
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions736002040100120140160169

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+5Teleop
+7Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +2
2Coral scored#1
6Coral points4
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
6Total teleop4
Reef
1L4#0
1L3#0
0L2#1
0L1 · trough#0
2Game pieces#1
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +7
0Foul points0
16Total score9

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
223
#11
28.25.2
26.221.0
Auto4.9
Teleop19.3
End4.0
red by 10.9
3340
#20
17.45.0
18.513.5
Auto3.6
Teleop12.2
End1.5
Second
8075
#15
10.95.2
16.211.0
Auto3.4
Teleop5.2
End2.3
red by 3.0
5624
#33DQ
7.95.0
16.611.7
Auto1.2
Teleop6.7
End0.1
Third
6016
#30
9.45.2
20.415.2
Auto0.9
Teleop6.5
End2.0
red by 2.3
6945
#22
7.05.0
18.513.5
Auto2.5
Teleop3.1
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsMissed42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed26%Barge oddsMissed