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Red79
870710.8
83443.2
871411.8
Blue64
8718.8
568423.4
910016.3
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions64652040801007964

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+17Teleop
+15Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave0
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points6
17Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +6
9Coral scored#8
34Coral points28
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
48Total teleop42
Reef
5L4#3
3L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#12
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points0
79Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
834
#4
43.21.7
29.130.8
Auto11.4
Teleop23.9
End8.0
red by 19.8
5684
#10
23.40.3
19.219.4
Auto5.8
Teleop11.3
End6.4
Second
8714
#20
11.81.0
10.911.9
Auto4.2
Teleop5.9
End1.8
blue by 7.0
87
#22
18.80.3
15.015.3
Auto4.3
Teleop11.8
End2.7
Third
8707
#26
10.81.7
14.616.3
Auto1.5
Teleop7.5
End1.8
blue by 5.4
9100
#25
16.30.4
18.018.4
Auto2.9
Teleop10.5
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
31%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsEarned