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Red137
314251.9
87146.6
162960.3
Blue124
167653.0
55540.4
162615.2
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1331226080100140160180137124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+11Teleop
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave3
7Coral scored#8
34Coral points41
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +18
11Coral scored#12
40Coral points42
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
18Processor points6
20Net points12
38Algae points18
78Total teleop60
Reef
7L4#10
5L3#5
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#24
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +13
6Foul points6
137Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.30.3
59.259.5
Auto17.3
Teleop39.8
End3.2
red by 7.3
53.00.1
53.253.4
Auto12.4
Teleop32.8
End7.9
Second
51.90.3
50.851.1
Auto9.9
Teleop34.1
End8.0
red by 11.5
555
#17
40.40.1
40.640.7
Auto13.0
Teleop21.2
End6.2
Third
8714
#24
6.60.3
5.55.8
Auto3.1
Teleop2.0
End1.6
blue by 8.5
1626
#14
15.20.1
15.315.5
Auto2.0
Teleop11.9
End1.3