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Red50
858819.7
87146.6
436122.9
Blue103
691143.5
255915.4
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4776010015020050103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+31
Endgame+53
Fouls+53
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points9
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +34
8Coral scored#15
30Coral points54
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
0Processor points6
4Net points8
4Algae points14
34Total teleop68
Reef
3L4#6
3L3#4
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#3
10Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +53
0Foul points0
50Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4361
#19
22.90.1
19.919.8
Auto5.4
Teleop11.5
End6.1
blue by 20.5
6911
#16
43.52.2
43.745.9
Auto2.3
Teleop36.3
End4.8
Second
8588
#20
19.70.1
20.120.1
Auto3.9
Teleop14.9
End0.9
red by 4.4
2559
#13
15.42.2
14.116.3
Auto3.0
Teleop6.9
End5.4
Third
8714
#24
6.60.1
5.85.8
Auto3.1
Teleop2.0
End1.6
blue by 0.4
7.12.2
5.88.0
Auto1.6
Teleop4.0
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
37%Auto oddsEarned32%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
69%Barge oddsMissed51%Barge oddsEarned