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Red33
245817.1
573213.8
457319.6
Blue39
858827.0
42822.8
2529.5
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6184020401001201401603339

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+14
Endgame+12
Fouls+6
Autonomouslevel
9Leave6
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +14
2Coral scored#6
8Coral points20
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
0Processor points6
4Net points0
4Algae points6
12Total teleop26
Reef
1L4#3
0L3#2
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
3Game pieces#8
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
6Foul points0
33Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4573
#18
19.62.3
23.621.4
Auto4.3
Teleop13.8
End1.5
blue by 9.9
25
#12
29.52.5
26.624.1
Auto5.0
Teleop23.6
End0.9
Second
2458
#19
17.12.3
20.518.3
Auto5.7
Teleop8.7
End2.7
blue by 9.9
27.02.5
25.923.4
Auto4.8
Teleop20.1
End2.1
Third
5732
#27
13.82.3
13.711.4
Auto3.0
Teleop9.2
End1.6
blue by 8.9
428
#10
22.82.5
21.318.8
Auto4.6
Teleop15.0
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsMissed77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed