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Red71
434237.2
181114.8
20320.9
Blue26
201618.4
872118.6
171220.0
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions96680204060801201401607126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+43Teleop
+41Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
0Leave0
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +34
11Coral scored#4
38Coral points14
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
52Total teleop18
Reef
6L4#2
3L3#1
3L2#0
1L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#5
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
6Foul points2
71Total score26

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4342
#11
37.21.9
33.331.5
Auto8.5
Teleop27.9
End0.8
red by 17.2
1712
#10
20.04.2
19.415.1
Auto2.2
Teleop16.2
End1.6
Second
203
#19
20.91.9
23.922.0
Auto3.3
Teleop15.8
End1.8
red by 2.4
8721
#25
18.64.2
17.713.4
Auto3.1
Teleop13.4
End2.1
Third
1811
#15
14.81.9
24.522.7
Auto3.8
Teleop10.5
End0.4
blue by 3.6
2016
#28
18.44.2
25.120.9
Auto2.9
Teleop15.0
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsMissed42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed