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Red126
329750.7
310225.5
818829.9
Blue124
591372.2
453923.6
565330.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions115140050200250300350126124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+6
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
6Leave6
3Coral scored#3
13Coral points14
19Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +5
20Coral scored#22
71Coral points80
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
12Processor points12
12Net points8
24Algae points20
95Total teleop100
Reef
7L4#10
7L3#5
4L2#5
5L1 · trough#5
28Game pieces#29
BargeRed +8
12Cage & park4
12Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
126Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.70.4
51.251.6
Auto7.7
Teleop34.7
End8.3
blue by 21.5
72.20.0
71.871.8
Auto12.6
Teleop49.8
End9.8
Second
8188
#18
29.90.4
30.430.8
Auto4.7
Teleop23.8
End1.4
blue by 0.3
5653
#19
30.30.0
29.929.9
Auto4.3
Teleop22.0
End4.0
Third
3102
#17
25.50.4
26.126.5
Auto6.2
Teleop17.3
End2.1
red by 1.9
4539
#10
23.60.0
23.223.2
Auto2.7
Teleop17.0
End3.9