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Red122
591372.2
767716.9
842227.8
Blue83
87657.7
887817.3
329424.7
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15012505010020025030012283

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+25Teleop
+33Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave6
2Coral scored#0
11Coral points0
20Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +11
19Coral scored#14
68Coral points51
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
6Processor points12
8Net points8
14Algae points20
82Total teleop71
Reef
6L4#5
5L3#4
7L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#18
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
6Foul points0
122Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.21.5
70.769.3
Auto12.6
Teleop49.8
End9.8
red by 14.5
876
#4
57.72.3
65.563.3
Auto13.3
Teleop36.4
End8.1
Second
8422
#14
27.81.5
31.029.5
Auto5.2
Teleop14.9
End7.7
red by 3.1
3294
#22
24.72.8
27.925.2
Auto2.1
Teleop18.1
End4.6
Third
7677
#21
16.91.5
25.123.7
Auto4.0
Teleop11.8
End1.1
blue by 0.4
8878
#23
17.32.3
17.415.1
Auto2.8
Teleop11.4
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsMissed77%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsMissed