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Red131
331332.6
329743.1
87662.5
Blue98
887823.0
453918.4
565333.8
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1656705010015020025013198

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
Teleop+11
+9Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave9
6Coral scored#0
30Coral points0
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +32
12Coral scored#19
43Coral points67
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
53Total teleop85
Reef
8L4#11
4L3#3
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#23
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +33
24Foul points0
131Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
876
#3
62.50.7
63.262.5
Auto13.3
Teleop41.2
End7.9
red by 28.7
5653
#11
33.80.5
33.233.8
Auto4.2
Teleop24.1
End5.5
Second
3297
#12
43.10.7
43.943.1
Auto5.6
Teleop29.6
End8.0
red by 20.1
23.00.5
22.523.0
Auto3.2
Teleop16.8
End3.1
Third
3313
#14
32.60.7
33.332.6
Auto11.5
Teleop14.8
End6.3
red by 14.2
4539
#13
18.40.5
17.818.4
Auto3.2
Teleop10.7
End4.5