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Red100
887823.0
525330.9
723513.9
Blue93
767719.0
327823.0
448016.9
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7255010015020010093

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+5Teleop
+7Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points12
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +8
18Coral scored#15
63Coral points53
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
6Processor points12
16Net points12
22Algae points24
85Total teleop77
Reef
7L4#7
4L3#6
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#22
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +7
0Foul points0
100Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5253
#22
30.91.9
29.030.9
Auto4.6
Teleop25.0
End1.3
red by 7.9
3278
#10
23.01.9
19.521.4
Auto2.9
Teleop20.2
End-0.2
Second
23.01.9
17.519.4
Auto3.2
Teleop16.8
End3.1
red by 4.0
7677
#18
19.01.9
17.719.7
Auto4.5
Teleop12.9
End1.6
Third
7235
#16
13.91.9
13.415.3
Auto1.4
Teleop8.8
End3.7
blue by 3.1
4480
#17
16.91.9
13.215.2
Auto3.4
Teleop10.6
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsMissed62%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsMissed12%Barge oddsMissed