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Red161
425347.1
942740.6
713026.5
Blue88
816928.9
758923.8
300820.6
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114635010015016188

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+22Auto
+51Teleop
+67Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +22
3Leave9
7Coral scored#1
34Coral points6
37Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +29
17Coral scored#11
60Coral points39
3Processor algae#3
6Net algae#4
18Processor points18
24Net points16
42Algae points34
102Total teleop73
Reef
11L4#4
5L3#3
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
33Game pieces#19
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +73
6Foul points0
161Total score88

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.12.6
40.543.1
Auto12.5
Teleop27.2
End7.5
red by 18.3
8169
#23
28.91.0
24.125.1
Auto4.5
Teleop23.9
End0.4
Second
9427
#19
40.64.3
34.238.6
Auto11.4
Teleop28.9
End0.3
red by 16.8
7589
#10
23.81.0
18.519.5
Auto3.9
Teleop19.3
End0.6
Third
7130
#20
26.54.3
21.726.1
Auto5.4
Teleop18.3
End2.8
red by 5.9
3008
#29
20.61.0
16.717.7
Auto3.9
Teleop16.5
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned39%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsEarned11%Barge oddsMissed