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Red128
59730.2
940625.7
822947.8
Blue85
585715.1
98814.4
940037.6
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions118702040608010014016012885

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+13Teleop
+37Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave6
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points7
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +10
17Coral scored#15
60Coral points54
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
82Total teleop72
Reef
8L4#7
3L3#3
5L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#20
BargeRed +24
24Cage & park0
24Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
6Foul points0
128Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.81.0
44.045.0
Auto10.5
Teleop29.9
End7.5
red by 10.2
9400
#15
37.60.7
35.536.2
Auto5.2
Teleop31.7
End0.7
Second
597
#33
30.21.0
27.428.5
Auto6.3
Teleop22.4
End1.5
red by 15.1
5857
#38
15.10.7
14.515.3
Auto5.0
Teleop8.2
End2.0
Third
9406
#16
25.71.0
23.724.8
Auto2.9
Teleop15.3
End7.5
red by 11.3
988
#25
14.40.7
12.913.7
Auto4.6
Teleop7.3
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned41%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsMissed