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Red142
146851.2
54521.0
287537.2
Blue64
234710.6
680620.1
313721.2
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11355010015020014264

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+68Teleop
+70Endgame
+78Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave9
4Coral scored#0
21Coral points0
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +47
19Coral scored#10
70Coral points37
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
98Total teleop51
Reef
9L4#4
6L3#3
4L2#1
4L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#13
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +78
8Foul points0
142Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1468
#17
51.23.1
45.448.4
Auto10.7
Teleop36.5
End4.0
red by 30.0
3137
#28
21.20.3
15.515.8
Auto2.3
Teleop14.6
End4.4
Second
2875
#12
37.23.1
31.734.7
Auto9.6
Teleop27.5
End0.2
red by 17.0
6806
#31
20.10.3
23.624.0
Auto3.9
Teleop14.6
End1.6
Third
545
#26
21.03.1
17.120.2
Auto5.6
Teleop13.6
End1.8
red by 10.4
2347
#44
10.60.3
9.910.2
Auto3.1
Teleop6.5
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsMissed46%Barge oddsMissed