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Red141
32948.7
52717.2
287251.1
Blue103
969237.2
216120.2
445841.2
75%Model gave it25%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1279950150200141103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+14Teleop
+38Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave9
5Coral scored#4
23Coral points21
23Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +21
22Coral scored#12
78Coral points43
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
6Processor points12
8Net points16
14Algae points28
92Total teleop71
Reef
13L4#4
8L3#5
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#22
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points0
141Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.10.5
51.652.1
Auto14.1
Teleop32.6
End4.4
red by 9.9
41.20.0
41.241.2
Auto12.1
Teleop26.6
End2.5
Second
329
#2
48.70.6
49.450.0
Auto5.8
Teleop37.6
End5.3
red by 11.5
9692
#11
37.20.0
37.137.2
Auto11.9
Teleop22.8
End2.5
Third
527
#38
17.20.6
17.918.5
Auto5.0
Teleop8.9
End3.3
blue by 2.9
2161
#15
20.20.0
20.120.2
Auto6.0
Teleop12.7
End1.5