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Red55
30177.8
36924.1
320419.2
Blue43
429917.5
51236.9
188032.8
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions577901001502005543

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
0Teleop0
+4Endgame
+12Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave6
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto6
Teleoperatedlevel
7Coral scored#8
25Coral points27
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
0Processor points6
8Net points0
8Algae points6
33Total teleop33
Reef
3L4#4
3L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#9
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
10Foul points2
55Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
369
#39
24.10.6
24.624.0
Auto2.4
Teleop20.2
End1.5
blue by 8.8
1880
#30
32.81.8
36.134.3
Auto5.6
Teleop24.9
End2.3
Second
3204
#31
19.20.9
16.315.4
Auto2.7
Teleop13.6
End2.9
red by 1.7
4299
#38
17.53.1
16.713.6
Auto3.1
Teleop13.0
End1.3
Third
3017
#45
7.80.7
11.811.1
Auto2.8
Teleop5.2
End-0.1
red by 0.9
5123
#46
6.93.1
15.812.7
Auto0.3
Teleop6.2
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
16%Auto oddsMissed58%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
9%Barge oddsMissed38%Barge oddsMissed