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Red139
320419.2
873922.9
69491.4
Blue146
964246.9
115531.8
226524.4
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13378050100150200139146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+9
Endgame+1
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave6
4Coral scored#5
18Coral points24
27Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +6
17Coral scored#18
60Coral points64
3Processor algae#4
5Net algae#4
18Processor points24
20Net points16
38Algae points40
98Total teleop104
Reef
8L4#10
7L3#4
4L2#5
2L1 · trough#4
29Game pieces#31
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
0Foul points6
139Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
694
#2
91.41.1
78.779.9
Auto23.4
Teleop56.3
End11.7
red by 44.5
46.93.7
36.340.1
Auto11.0
Teleop31.9
End4.0
Second
8739
#15
22.91.3
18.119.4
Auto4.0
Teleop16.8
End2.1
blue by 8.9
1155
#14
31.84.2
20.624.7
Auto7.5
Teleop22.9
End1.3
Third
3204
#31
19.21.9
13.915.8
Auto2.7
Teleop13.6
End2.9
blue by 5.2
2265
#23
24.44.2
15.819.9
Auto6.3
Teleop16.5
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsMissed20%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
52%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
74%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed