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Red92
402744.9
529832.3
727220.2
Blue77
226524.4
664817.2
80615.6
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions97650501509277

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+33Teleop
+47Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave3
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points6
20Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +22
9Coral scored#6
32Coral points20
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
56Total teleop34
Reef
6L4#3
3L3#1
1L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#10
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points32
92Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.90.4
39.740.1
Auto10.6
Teleop28.1
End6.2
red by 20.4
2265
#23
24.41.0
21.020.0
Auto6.3
Teleop16.5
End1.6
Second
5298
#18
32.30.4
32.232.6
Auto5.3
Teleop24.9
End2.1
red by 15.2
6648
#36
17.21.0
19.318.3
Auto3.7
Teleop11.7
End1.7
Third
7272
#25
20.20.7
10.611.3
Auto2.2
Teleop15.0
End3.0
red by 4.6
806
#42
15.61.0
17.316.3
Auto4.7
Teleop9.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
49%Auto oddsMissed53%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed