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Red41
35425.9
1022913.2
58069.8
Blue36
929527.9
950911.6
703617.5
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions62602040801004136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+7
+3Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave3
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points3
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +10
3Coral scored#5
12Coral points18
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
0Processor points0
4Net points8
4Algae points8
16Total teleop26
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#8
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
2Foul points0
41Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
354
#26
25.91.1
19.418.3
Auto6.9
Teleop15.0
End4.0
blue by 2.0
9295
#21
27.92.1
26.924.8
Auto5.8
Teleop20.7
End1.4
Second
13.20.9
11.110.3
Auto3.5
Teleop7.3
End2.5
blue by 4.3
7036
#41
17.52.6
17.214.6
Auto2.6
Teleop12.1
End2.8
Third
5806
#49
9.81.1
18.317.2
Auto2.9
Teleop4.9
End2.0
blue by 1.8
9509
#48
11.62.6
15.512.9
Auto2.6
Teleop7.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsMissed63%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed