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Red121
402744.9
457129.8
226524.4
Blue100
659330.8
160114.5
341938.0
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10390406080120140160121100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+9Teleop
+21Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave9
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points14
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +5
12Coral scored#16
44Coral points59
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
68Total teleop73
Reef
5L4#8
6L3#5
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#22
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +21
0Foul points0
121Total score100

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.90.6
43.143.7
Auto10.6
Teleop28.1
End6.2
red by 6.9
38.00.4
37.638.0
Auto10.3
Teleop21.7
End6.0
Second
29.80.6
28.128.7
Auto6.1
Teleop22.8
End0.9
blue by 1.0
30.80.4
30.430.8
Auto8.4
Teleop17.2
End5.2
Third
2265
#23
24.40.6
22.723.3
Auto6.3
Teleop16.5
End1.6
red by 9.9
1601
#17
14.50.4
14.114.5
Auto4.5
Teleop8.2
End1.7